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Beastgrave Q2 Data Final Results

The below data is from the second "Quarter" of the Beastgrave season. The data began with the release of the Snarlfang warband on November 23rd 2019 and ended with the release of the FAR2.0 on January 10th 2020.


As always, you can see the ongoing stats for each quarter here.


If you would like your events included in this data, be sure to use Best Coast Pairings or Underworlds Deckers to run your events.

First lets look at the basic numbers for this quarter:

  • ​Events Calculated: 50

  • Total Matches: 1045

  • Number of players: 544

This data includes no official Grand Clashes, but did include the Grand Skirmish Germany event, which drew 56 players and had the same format as a Grand Clash. You can see the results of this event here.


Due to the short time window (caused by the staggered release of Grymwatch and Snarlfangs) , the number of matches is a bit smaller than the previous quarter, but I am happy that it exceeded the 1000 game mark.


This time I made one small change to the way things were being calculated, and have no longer included draws towards being undefeated as the rounds progress, changing that rating from "rounds undefeated" to "win streak." The main reason for this is that one player getting a few draws in a row throws off this number, and it's unlikely you can actually win an event with m(any) draws, so wins are more important.


Now lets look at warband representation:

Here are the raw numbers:

Something to keep in mind when looking at the percentages are the total number of warbands, and what a perfectly event distribution would be. With 22 warbands, that number would be 4.5%, and anything over that number could be considered "popular."


Unsurprisingly, the newer warbands are very popular. Grymwatch remain number one, likely due to their perceived power, but Rippa's Snarfangs are the next most popular. Thorns of the Briar Queen were 3rd, and Wild Hunt 4th, and Profiteers 5th, and Cursebreakers 6th.


Zarbag's Gitz are the warband with the closest to the perfectly even number of players, with Despoilers being the next closest.


Win Rate


The simplest but likely least accurate way is pure win rate. This is a nice thing to know, but does not take into account how difficult the games might be, only if the result is a win or a loss.


Here are the raw numbers:

Here is a chart showing the same data:

A few interesting points here:

  • Only 7 warbands had a win-rate over 50%: Reavers, Farstriders, Thorns, Mollog, Lady Harrows, Grymwatch, and Snarlfangs.

  • Once again, despite only having a few (18) players, Mollog's Mog had an excellent win rate, higher than that of warbands like Grymwatch and Thorns.

  • Lady Harrows continued to have a solid win-rate, though it did fall somewhat from the last quarter, perhaps as people learned to handle them better.

  • Of the warbands with 35 or more players this quarter, the highest win rate was Rippas, then Grymwatch, Thorns, Cursebreakers, and Profiteers.

Events Won:


Another stat to look at is how many events a warband won, and what percentage of players that took a given warband won the event that they attended.

The higher each number is, the better the warband is doing. A large number of events won with a small percentage would indicate a warband is popular but not many of its players won their events, while a smaller number and a higher percentage would indicate that although only a few players used that warband, they did well with them. A high number and a high percentage would seem to indicate that players that play that warband are very likely to win their event. This number is fun to look at, but is heavily effected by the sample sizes.

Win Streaks and Average First Loss (or Draw)


These two data points are my favorite indicators of a Warband's performance.


The first, Win Streaks, gives the percentage of players that have not had a loss or draw after each round. Because most events are three rounds, I usually only keep track of the numbers for the first three rounds. The perfectly balanced numbers to compare the results to would be 50%, 25%, and 12.5%. If a Warband's numbers are higher than these, it means they are doing well.


The second, Average First Loss, tells you the average round a warband usually takes their first loss. This number will usually range between 1 and 3, due to most smaller events being 3 rounds, and the tiny number of players that end up playing more rounds than that without losing a game. Typically a score over 2 is considered to be a good one.


These numbers are, in my opinion, much more indicative of success than pure win rate, as they do take into account the matches getting more difficult as an event goes on.


Here are the numbers for these stats:

This quarter these numbers show very similar results as the win rates and other data, though the 3rd round performance of Condemners does stick out as a bit different, meaning a small number of those players were able to go the distance while the rest where knocked out in the first or second rounds.


Final thoughts:

The purpose of tracking this data was to try and get a good look at the current state of the game, and I am happy with the number of games I was able to collect and track over the course of Season 3 Quarter 2. If you'd like to see the raw data for this quarter, you can view it here. Here is the entire end result image:

If you have an event you would like me to include in future data, let me know by messaging me on Facebook, discord, or here. All I need is the win/loss/draw/bye info for each player (WDLW, BWWL, LLBW, etc) and who ended up winning the event. Names are not needed, so Orks 1, Orks 2, etc, is fine.


I will automatically gather the results on Best Coast Pairings and UnderworldsDeckers as they are submitted, so don’t worry about those.


If there is anything else I should track going forward, let me know and and I will see if I can

add it in for the next quarter.


Thanks.

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