The below data is from the third "Quarter" (basically a slice of the game where the rules are all the same, there might end up being more than 4) of the Beastgrave season. The data began with the release of the FAR2.0 on January 10th 2020 and ended with the release of The Wurmspat and Hrothgorn's Mantrappers on February 8th 2020.
This is just under a month, but there were a number of large events and lots of games recorded!
As always, you can see the ongoing stats for each quarter here.
First lets look at the basic numbers for this quarter:
Events Calculated: 35
Total Matches: 1550
Number of players: 710
This data includes two grand clashes and four skirmishes which took place at the January Warhammer World Grand Masters Championship Grand Clash (click here for the GC breakdown), and the Las Vegan Open Grand Clash (click here for the GC breakdown).
Although there were fewer events included in this data slice than the previous one due to the short time window (due to the FAR2.0 update so soon before the W/M release) there were actually more players and more matches recorded, due to the large size of some the events that took place during this time frame.
All the numbers:
Here is everything for this quarter:
Now we'll break it all up!
First lets look at warband representation for Q3:
Here are the numbers of players who played each warband at an event:
I've included a "perfect average" line at the bottom of many items to show what the number would look like if perfectly distributed among all 22 warbands. With 710 players in this data, an average representation would be 32 players, or 4.5 percent the of total player pools. Warbands with numbers higher or lower than that could be said to be more or less popular.
Here are a few more ways to look at these numbers:
As you can see, the most popular warbands this quarter were:
Lady Harrow's Mournflight
Thorns of the Briar Queen
Skaeth's Wild Hunt
These 7 warbands together made up 69.44% of the field, and could therefore likely be considered the "meta" for this quarter.
The simplest but likely least accurate way is pure win rate. This is a nice thing to know, but does not take into account how difficult the games might be, only if the result is a win or a loss.
Here are the raw numbers. As you can see, a perfectly average win rate would be 49% (because of the occasional draw), so numbers higher or lower than that are better or worse.
Here is a chart showing the same data:
The warbands with above average win rates this quarter are:
Thorns of the Briar Queen
Lady Harrow's Mournflight
Rippa's Snarlfangs and Skaeth's Wild Hunt were just below the average, with win rates just under 49%, so could be said to be doing decently as well.
These are the warbands with the 7 highest win rates, so it is likely no coincidence they were also the 7 most popular warbands.
Another stat to look at is how many events a warband won, and what percentage of players that took a given warband won the event that they attended.
The higher each number is, the better the warband is doing.
A large number of events won with a small percentage would indicate a warband is popular but not many of its players won their events, while a smaller number and a higher percentage would indicate that although only a few players used that warband, they did well with them. A high number and a high percentage would seem to indicate that players that play that warband are very likely to win their event.
This number is fun to look at, but is heavily effected by the sample sizes, so probably isn't the best indicator of true power levels, and doesn't show us much that we didn't know already.
Win Streaks and Average First Loss (or Draw)
These two data points are my favorite indicators of a Warband's performance.
The first, Win Streaks, gives the percentage of players that have not had a loss or draw after each round. Because most events are three rounds, I usually only keep track of the numbers for the first three rounds. The perfectly balanced numbers to compare the results to would be 50%, 25%, and 12.5%. If a Warband's numbers are higher than these, it means they are doing well.
The second, Average First Loss, tells you the average round a warband usually takes their first loss. This number will usually range between 1 and 3, due to most smaller events being 3 rounds, and the tiny number of players that end up playing more rounds than that without losing a game. Typically a score over 2 is considered to be a good one.
These numbers are, in my opinion, much more indicative of success than pure win rate, as they do take into account the matches getting more difficult as an event goes on.
Here are the numbers for these stats:
The average number for the AFRL number is 1.95, so any warband with a higher score could be said to be doing better than average.
This quarter, the best performing warband by these metrics was the Godsworn Hunt, due to only having 4 players, 3 of which won their first game, and 1 of which made it to 5 wins in a row in one of the UK Grand Skirmishes, heavily weighting the numbers.
Once you correct for the smaller sample sizes, the highest performing warbands by AFRL were:
Once again our top 7 represented warbands, this time joined by Mollog's Mob, who's 14 players put up some solid numbers in a few events. Only Thorns, Profiteers, Grymwatch, Harrows, and Rippa's were above average, though, and the number for Thorns of the Briar Queen is extremely high at 2.49, meaning that the average Thorns player did not lose a match until the 2nd or 3rd round.
Sorted by the 3rd round win streak, the top results are similar:
6 of the 7 top represented warbands had the best numbers, with Skaeth's Wild Hunt being the only missing warband, with a lower result of 8.93%.
The purpose of tracking this data was to try and get a good look at the current state of the game, and I am happy with the number of games I was able to collect and track over the course of Season 3 Quarter 2. Here is the entire end result image:
If you have an event you would like me to include in future data, let me know by messaging me on Facebook, discord, or here. All I need is the win/loss/draw/bye info for each player (WDLW, BWWL, LLBW, etc) and who ended up winning the event. Names are not needed, so Orks 1, Orks 2, etc, is fine.
If there is anything else I should track going forward, let me know and and I will see if I can
add it in for the next quarter.