Beastgrave Q4 Data Final Results

Updated: Jun 28, 2020

The below data is from the 4th "Quarter" (basically a slice of the game where the rules are all the same, there will end up being more than 4) of the Beastgrave season. The data began with the release of The Wurmspat and Hrothgorn's Mantrappers warbands on February 8th 2020 and ended with the FAR3.0 update on June 18th, 2020.

This was one of the longest cycles due to COVID19 delays, but there were still a number of large online events and lots of games recorded!

As always, you can see the ongoing stats for each quarter here.

If you would like your events included in this data, be sure to use Best Coast Pairings or Underworlds Deckers to run your events.

A special thanks to @Compak on dicord for helping me streamline a lot of the formulas and calculations that go into this.

Editor's Note: I realized I had some of the numbers wrong on the original version of this article due to an excel error. I have fixed this error, and the results should now be correct. Not much changed except a slight reduction in win rate and AFRL for some warbands.

First lets look at the basic numbers for this quarter:

  • ​Events Calculated: 71

  • Total Matches: 1596

  • Number of players: 859

The average size for events this quarter was smaller than normal for obvious reasons, but still reached about 8 players. It does include a 62 person online event, a 30 person online event (you can read more about those here), and a 42 person Bugman's Skirmish, though.

All the numbers:

Here is everything for this quarter:

Now we'll break it all up!

First lets look at warband representation for Q3:

Here are the numbers of players who played each warband at an event:

Another way to look at this is:

The perfect average (if each warband had the same number of players) would be 35 players or 4.17%, meaning any warband with numbers higher than that can be said to popular.

As you can see, the most popular warbands this quarter were:

  • Hrothgorn's Mantrappers

  • Rippa's Snarlfangs

  • The Grymwatch

  • Cursebreakers

  • The Wurmspat

  • Thorns of the Briar Queen

  • Lady Harrow's Mournflight

  • Thundrik's Profiteers

  • Skaeth's Wild Hunt

It is interesting to note that these are the same 7 warbands that were above average in the last quarter, with the addition of the two new warbands, Hrothgorn and Wurmspat.

These 9 warbands together made up 73% of the field, and could therefore likely be considered the "meta" for this quarter.

Win Rate

The simplest but likely least accurate way is pure win rate. This is a nice thing to know, but does not take into account how difficult the games might be, only if the result is a win or a loss.

Here are the raw numbers. As you can see, a perfectly average win rate would be 48% (because of the occasional draw), so numbers higher or lower than that are better or worse.

Here is another way to look at it:

The warbands with above average win rates are as follows:

  • Farstriders

  • Thorns of the Briar Queen

  • Thundriks Profiteers

  • Mollog's Mob

  • The Grymwatch

  • Lady Harrows Mournflight

  • Rippa's Snarlfangs

  • Hrothgron's Mantrappers

The warbands that were both "popular" and had above average win rates were:

  • Thorns of the Briar Queen

  • Thundriks Profiteers

  • The Grymwatch

  • Rippa's Snarlfangs

  • Lady Harrows Mournflight

  • Hrothgron's Mantrappers

Events Won:

Another stat to look at is how many events a warband won, and what percentage of players that took a given warband won the event that they attended.

The higher each number is, the better the warband is doing.

A large number of events won with a small percentage would indicate a warband is popular but not many of its players won their events, while a smaller number and a higher percentage would indicate that although only a few players used that warband, they did well with them. A high number and a high percentage would seem to indicate that players that play that warband are very likely to win their event.

This number is fun to look at, but is heavily effected by the sample sizes, and doesn't take into account how big each is, so probably isn't the best indicator of true power levels, and may not show us much that we didn't know already.

Average First Loss (or Draw)

This data point is my favorite indicator of a Warband's performance.

Average First Loss tells you the average round a warband usually takes their first loss. This number will usually range between 1 and 3, due to most smaller events being 3 rounds, and the tiny number of players that end up playing more rounds than that without losing a game. Typically a score over 2 is considered to be a good one.

This number if, in my opinion, much more indicative of success than pure win rate, as it does take into account the matches getting more difficult as an event goes on.

Mollog and Sepulchral Guard are very high in their positions due to a few players doing very well with them this quarter, and few others playing those warbands.

If we only compare the 9 popular warbands (that make up 73% of the field), the numbers look like this:

All but Rippa's and Wild Hunt are above the average of 1.85, which is interesting because Rippa's won so many events this quarter, but may mean that the Rippa's players that do not win tend to lose their games very early, and a smaller core of players tends to go the distance.

Final thoughts:

The purpose of tracking this data was to try and get a good look at the current state of the game, and I am happy with the number of games I was able to collect and track over the course of Season 3 Quarter 4.

Overall, I think this was a very interesting meta slice, and it is much different from the previous one where thorns and Grymwatch dominated. With the new FAQ3.0 balancing things even more, I am very curious what these numbers will look like in the next quarter.

If you have an event you would like me to include in future data, let me know by messaging me on Facebook, discord, or here. All I need is the win/loss/draw/bye info for each player (WDLW, BWWL, LLBW, etc) and who ended up winning the event. Names are not needed, so Orks 1, Orks 2, etc, is fine.

I will automatically gather the results on Best Coast Pairings and UnderworldsDeckers as they are submitted, so don’t worry about those.

If there is anything else I should track going forward, let me know and and I will see if I can

add it in for the next quarter.


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