WiggleFish again, talking some more about the board roll off from the second large 62 player online event that recently took place on this Discord.
Similar to the previous event, we tracked the below factors:
Who won the board roll off
Who got 3 Objectives
Who got board placement
We were able to collect this data for most of the games in the tournament, totaling 294 games. The format of the event was the typical best of three championship format, in the current "post Wurmspat/Mantrappers" meta. It ran 4 rounds, then cut to the top 4 for two more rounds to determine a winner.
We also collected all 62 decks from this event, added them to the 30 decks from the previous event, and broke down the cards for them all, with some interesting results in the second part of the article.
Board roll off numbers:
If you recall the numbers from the previous event, there were some very interesting results such as the result of the first board roll off not seeming to matter as much as the second or third roll off, and the advantage seeming to increase more and more as the rounds progressed.
As sometimes happens when you collect small samples of data and try to figure out what they mean, the data this time showed something a bit different. At this event, the general roll off win percentage for players that won the roll off was 58.5% (172/294), up from 50.36% (70/139) at the last event. Added together, this makes the general win rate when a player wins the roll off 55.88% (242/433).
This number is likely closer to accurate given the larger sample size, and makes sense when you assume that the answer to the question "Do you want to win the board roll off?" almost has to be "Yes!"
The percentages during the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd games were also different as well. In the previous set of data, the win rate for the roll off winner in the first game of a match was a fairly low 39.33%. In the first game of the first round of the second event, a staggering 74.19% (23/31) of players that won the roll won the game, throwing this number off completely, and making the overall game one roll off winner win rate up to 60.17% for the event, and overall 56% for both events combined. Interestingly, the overall numbers for all three rounds ended up very similar once the two events were combined, with an average of about 56% win rate to the player who won boards in any round.
In the end, I think these things mean that winning the board roll is generally a good thing at all times, but that there are likely many other factors in play. Did we learn anything? I'm not sure, lol.
Here is the overall performance data of each faction at the second event:
Here is the "Path to Glory" showing the number of each warband with only match wins in each round, as well as the top 4 cut and day 2 results.
Here is the roll off data for each warband at the event:
In case it's not clear, "Roll Off Win Wins" means the number of games a player won board the roll off and the game, and "Roll Off Lose Wins" means the number of games a player lost the roll off but won the game.
Now we can combine the results of the two events and see if there is anything interesting:
In general, I think these numbers mostly show us what we expected to see:
Pretty much everyone likes to win the board roll off. Objective warbands love it.
Objective warbands like Gitz, Thorns, Harrows, and The Grymwatch tend to like having 3 objectives, though inspiring might actually be more important for The Grymwatch (since they have a better win rate when they place boards).
More aggro and control oriented warbands like Nurgle, Mollog, Skaeth, Magore's, and Farstriders seem to prefer to place the boards, likely because they have more control over fighter positioning and have targets in range.
Hrothgorn seems to prefer having 3 objectives, perhaps because of the common objective removal builds, and the way it makes the enemy warbands come to him.
Skaven seem to love having board placement, likely do to their speed allowing them to control the engagement, likely similar to what happens with The Grymwatch.
Rippas are a bit of an outlier, as I would have thought they preferred to place the boards, but they actually did better when they had 3 objectives. This may also be due to other factors, though,and the fact they played fewer games with board placement.
Many warbands had positive win-rates with both board set ups, which may just indicate they don't mind as much what they get, or that what they want can shift based on the match-up or other factors.
Many thanks to those who helped me collect the data for these stats, as they were very interesting to dig into, and I hope the readers enjoy it as well.
I will likely not track this information again, since it is a lot of work to collect, and I think we generally know what factors are at play here.
Thanks to the players and TOs of the two events, I was able to get the deck lists for all 92 players and pull them apart for some analyses. I'm not sure I would say many of the results are a surprise, but it's cool to see what people are using.
Here are the top 50 most popular cards for all 92 decks:
I think the above list makes a lot of sense to anyone who has been playing lately, and it's no surprise to me that cards like Distraction, Nightmare In the Shadows, Frenzied Search, Restless Prize, and Temporary Victory were popular.
To see how this breaks down by faction, see below. I've marked cards that are used over 50% green, below 33% red, and those between blue:
If you want to take a closer look at this data, you can view the complete document here. In general, I believe these two events to be a good look at the current competitive meta, and am excited to see what happens with the next update.
I hope you found this interesting to look at, as I know I have enjoyed collecting and calculating it.
If you liked this article, great! If you have any questions about the above data, notice any mistakes, or have any comments on what could be done better the next time, please let me know below.