Updated: Nov 30, 2019
Nightvault is over, and here is a look at all of the stats compiled for the last quarter. This quarter started with the 4th Banned and Restricted update, which I call BAR4.0, and ended with the release of Beastgrave.
As always, you can see the stats for each quarter here.
First lets look at the basic numbers for this quarter:
Events Calculated: 70
Total Matches: 1357
Number of players: 766
This quarter has less data than the previous one, with fewer large events taking place in the UK, and the major Spanish event unfortunately not saving its data. As always, this data is only as complete as the number of events that I am able to gather data from.
As always, the criteria for an event to counted in this data is for it to have at least 6 players and three or more rounds.
Now lets look at warband representation:
These numbers are somewhat similar to those of the previous quarter, with a few notable exceptions:
Ylthari's Guardians saw a large decrease in players, dropping from to 12.4% to 8.5%. It seems like the changes in the BAR4.0 may have reduced their power and dropped their popularity.
Cursebreakers dropped from 14.3% of the field to 10.4%, again most likely due to reductions in power in the BAR4.0.
Spiteclaw's Swarm jumped significantly in popularity, going from 2.8% to 6.4%, most likely due to the popularity of Madskullz' Festering and Hungering deck and it's many offshoots.
Thorns of the Briar Queen jumped from 6.8% of the field to 12.6% as the BAR4.0 gave them some significant power boosts.
Faction win rates:
Below you can see the overall win rates for each warband in this data:
The exact numbers from the data can be seen here:
Keep in mind that is pure win rate over all rounds, so it doesn't track how difficult the games may have been.
Some Interesting things that stood out to me here compared to the previous quarter:
No one played Ironsoul's Condemners, and only one person player Lady Harrows (due to limited availability and legality, I assume), so their numbers are not very meaningful at the moment.
Sepulchral Guard players increased their win rate significantly this quarter, from 38% to 45%.
Ironskull's Boyz also increased their win rate from 34% to 41.56%
Zarbag's Gitz did much better this quarter, going from 41% to 52.10%.
Ylthari's Guardians saw a marked decrease in win rate, dropping from 55% last quarter to 44.16%.
Farstriders, like because they lost so much in the BAR4.0, dropped their win rate from 58% to 38% (the previous number may have also been at least partially a fluke of the small sample size).
Thundrik's Profiteers were both the most popular warband and the most successful warband this quarter, with their already good win rate of 53% last quarter increasing to a blistering 58.56%.
Rounds Undefeated and Events Won
Another stat I find interesting in addition to simple win rate is how likely a given faction is to progress through each round of a tournament undefeated. Winning your games at the beginning of an even is generally easier than winning them at the end, so this seems like useful information.
To me, this shows that although some factions may be objectively powerful and likely easier to play, some other factions are able to progress well in events when piloted by the right player.
Below you can see what percent of players in each faction made it through the first, second, and third rounds of their events undefeated. A perfectly average progression would be 50% > 25% > 12.5% over the three rounds, so you can compare the below results to these numbers to see how each warband did.
Here are the raw numbers. You can also see what percentage of players in each warband actually won the event they attended.
As you can see, a number of warbands have a very high percentage of players make it past the first round undefeated (Profiteers, Thorns, Boyz, Cursebreakers, Gitz, and Mollog are all over 50%, and eyes were perfectly 50%), which likely means they are some combination of powerful, easy to play, or not something the other players were expecting.
Rounds two and three are where the competition gets much harder, and some percentages start to drop significantly while others stay high. After the second round, the warbands with better than average (25%) stats were Eyes, Thundrik's, Thorns, Gitz, Mollog, Cursebreakers, and Magore's.
After the third round, the factions with the better than average (12.5%) percentages were Thundrik's, Eyes, Mollog, Thorns, Cursebreakers, Gitz, and Reavers.
To me, this shows that the warbands with lots of players and consistently high averages in each round are likely very powerful. Thundrik's, Gitz, Thorns, and Cursebreakers all fall into this category for me.
The warbands with less popular numbers but good averages seem more likely to be piloted by good players that are playing the warbands in a way that might take the other players by surprise, or simply out playing their opponents. It seems likely that this is the reason for Eyes and Reavers doing so well.
For event wins, Thundrick's were clearly the most successful, with 17% of Thundrik's players winning the events they attended, despite the fact that they were also the most popular faction (and thus more likely to knock each other out). This doesn't take the size of the events into account, so can only be so valuable, but it's a stat i find interesting. After Thundrik's, Mollog, Godsworn, and Thorns had the best event win percentages, in that order.
Every warband won at least one event in this data, except for Magore's and Chosen Axes.
The purpose of tracking this data was to try and get a good look at the current state of the game, and I am happy with the number of games I was able to collect and track over the course of Season 2 Quarter 4.
I plan to continue this data tracking into the new Beastgrave season, starting with the first BAR / FAQ / Format update, or the first series of large events (UK and SoCal Open Grand Clashes) whichever is first.
If you have an event you would like me to include in future data, let me know by messaging me on Facebook, discord, or here. All I need is the win/loss/draw/bye info for each player (WDLW, BWWL, LLBW, etc) and who ended up winning the event. Names are not needed, so Orks 1, Orks 2, etc, is fine.
If there is anything else I should track going forward, let me know and and I will see if I can add it in for the next quarter.