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Nightvault Quarter 3 Data Final Results

With the release of the BAR4.0 on July 23rd, I think the game has been transformed enough that it is time to reset the Warband data I have been collecting once again.


This means we can review the final data and see how warbands did this quarter (Starting with the release of Ylthari's Guardians and ending with the BAR4.0).


First lets look at the basic numbers for this quarter:

  • Events Calculated: 79

  • Total Matches: 1760

  • Number of players: 977

This is 19 more events and almost 500 more games than I was able to record for the previous quarter. As always this data isn't perfect, but I'm always happy to see more numbers.


Some large events that took place during this time are shown below (click for a more detailed breakdown):

As always, the criteria for an event to counted in this data is for it to have at least 6 players and three or more rounds.


Now lets look at warband representation:

These numbers are fairly similar to the numbers from the second quarter, with some notable differences:

  • Magore's Fiends saw a large decrease in players, dropping from 12.1% to 6.9%.

  • Thundrick's Profiteers and Ylthari's Guardians were very popular, jumping to #1 and #3 in popularity and making up over 25% of the playing field.

  • Cursebreakers dropped from #1 to #2 behind Profiteers in terms of popularity.

Faction win rates:


Below you can see the overall win rates for each warband in this data:

Another way to look at it shown below:

Keep in mind that is pure win rate over all rounds, so it doesn't track how difficult the games may have been.


Some Interesting things that stood out to me here:

  • The 26 (a small sample size for sure) Farstrider players had the highest overall win rate in this data at 58% (up from 42% last quarter) over 91 games, and won 4 smaller events.

  • Steelheart's Champions had the lowest number of players at 23, but had a solid 50% (up from 48% last quarter) win rate and won 4 smaller events.

  • Magore's Fiends took a hit this quarter with their win rate dropping from 45% last quarter to 41% in this one.

  • Zarbag's Gitz took a very large hit this quarter, dropping from 51.52% last quarter to 41.80%.

  • Eyes of the nine went up from 39% last quarter to 43%.

  • Skaven and Chosen Axes dropped from each being at 47% last quarter to the mid to low 30%s.

  • Ironskull's Boyz actually gained a percentage, going from 33% last quarter to 34%.

  • Cursebreaker's win rate dropped significantly from 55% last quarter to 49.90% in this one.

  • Thundrick's, Mollog, and Thorns all had solid win rates just over 50%.

  • Godsworn Hunt's win rate remained almost the same, going from 42.11% last quarter to 42.29 in this one.

  • Ylthari's Guardians had the second highest win rate at 55.36% with a solid sample size of 248 players, 13 event wins, and 448 matches played.

Rounds Undefeated


Another stat I find interesting in addition to simple win rate is how likely a given faction is to progress through each round of a tournament undefeated. Winning your games at the beginning of an even is generally easier than winning them at the end, so this seems like useful information.


To me, this shows that although some factions may be objectively powerful and likely easier to play, some other factions are able to progress well in events when piloted by the right player.


Below you can see what percent of players in each faction made it through the first, second, and third rounds of their events undefeated. A perfectly average progression would be 50% > 25% > 12.5% over the three rounds, so you can compare the below results to these numbers to see how each warband did.



As you can see, a number of warbands have a very high percentage of players make it past the first round undefeated (Mollog, Cursebreakers, Eyes, Farstriders), which likely means they are some combination of powerful, easy to play, or not something the other players were expecting.


Rounds two and three are where the competition gets much harder, and some percentages start to drop significantly while others stay high.


After the third round, the factions with the best percentages were the small number of players playing Steelheart's (27%) and Farstriders (26%) with truly impressive percentages. Next were Ylthari's Guardians (20%), whose sample size is much larger.


After that, Mollog, Profiteers, Cursebreakers, and Gitz all had higher than average (>12.5%) percentages after 3 rounds.


Thorns were close behind, at 11.11%. Then it was Reavers (10.34%), Godsworn (9.43%), Magore's (8.77%), Eyes (7.89%), Boyz (6.45%), Chosen Axes (4%).


No Skaven or Guard players in this data made it to the 3rd round of an event undefeated.

Final thoughts:


The purpose of tracking this data was to try and get a good look at the current state of the game, and I am happy with the number of games I was able to collect and track over the course of Season 2 Quarter 3.


If you have an event you would like me to include in future data, let me know by messaging me on Facebook, discord, or here. All I need is the win/loss/draw/bye info for each player (WDLW, BWWL, LLBW, etc) and who ended up winning the event. Names are not needed, so Orks 1, Orks 2, etc, is fine.


I will automatically gather the results on Best Coast Pairings and UnderworldsDeckers as they are submitted, so don’t worry about those.


If there is anything else I should track going forward, let me know and and I will see if I can add it in for the next quarter.


Thanks.



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