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Warhammer World October Grand Clash Breakdown - Day 1

Updated: Nov 9, 2019

The first Grand Clash of Beastgrave is upon us!


Follow along below for all the details on warband and player stats. All data is from Best Coast Pairings and the Warhammer TV Twitch stream. You can find the rules for the event here.


A Word On The Stats:


For this event we are looking at a few different statistics each round, and at the end of the day, so here is an explanation on each one.

  • Win Rate: This is the pure win rate of the warband. Math wise, it is the number of wins divided by the number of games played. Importantly, win rate does not look at when during the event the wins took place, so although it is a good indicator of the general power of a warband, it isn't everything.

  • Rounds Undefeated: This is the number or percentage of players that make it through to each round without losing any games. Draws are not losses, so they don't count against this value like they do Win Rate. Statistically, this value should be 50% after the first round, then 25% in the second, 12.5% in the third, and 6.25% in the fourth, and so on, halving each round. This value is, in my opinion, the true indicator of how successful a given warband is in the meta because of the way games get more difficult.

  • Average First Loss: The idea stolen from 40KStats.com, this number is the average round that a warband loses their first game. This number will be calculated at the end of each day, and much like Rounds Undefeated, is a good indicator of Warband's power. To find this number, undefeated players are treated as having lost in the round after the tournament ended (such as round 9 of an 8 round event, etc).


Warband Representation:


See below for how many of each warband was represented at the event.

Graph:

Fun fact: With 19 warbands legal for play at the event (still no Dreadfane Warbands), the perfect average number per warband would be 5.3%., or 6 of each warband.



Round 1 Stats:

Here are the stats for the round:

Overall Win Rate Graph (the bar is all that faction's games, blue are wins, red losses, yellow draws):


Current Undefeated Warbands:


Round 2 Stats:

Here are the stats for the round by itself:

Current Stats for the event (rounds 1 and 2 together):

Overall Win Rate Graph (the bar is all that faction's games, blue are wins, red losses, yellow draws):

Current Undefeated Warbands:


Round 3 Stats:

Here are the stats for the round by itself:

Current Stats for the event (rounds 1, 2, and 3 together):

Overall Win Rate Graph (the bar is all that faction's games, blue are wins, red losses, yellow draws):

Current Undefeated Warbands:

Round 4 - Day 1 Final Stats:

Here are the stats for the round by itself:

Current Stats for the event (rounds 1, 2, 3 and 4 together):

Average First Loss

Again, If a warband didn't lose across the 4 rounds, they count as having lost in round 5 - the higher the number the better - I believe this number, along with % undefeated, typically show you the best indicator of warband strength, especially in larger sample sizes. For example, Mollog and Sepulchral Guard each had one player of 2 or 3 players do very well, which gave them very high averages. Personally I find the numbers for Thorns, Grymwatch, and Thundriks fairly meaningful.


Rounds Undefeated Percentage:

I love this stat for evaluating how good a warband is. The below graph shows each warband's original percentage and the percentage of players that make it into each round. The best possible result would be all five bars at 100% if no player of a warband ever lost. The average numbers for any warband would be 100% in the first round, then 50%, 25%, 12.5%, and 6.25% in the fourth round. As you can see, Thorns, Profiteers, and Grymwatch did very well. So did Mollog, Guard, and Eyes, though they had much smaller sample sizes so those numbers are mostly from one player.

Overall Win Rate Graph:

The bar is all that faction's games, blue are wins, red losses, yellow draws:

Final Undefeated Warbands:

Because I don't count draws as losses (maybe i should?) it's worth noting that one of the below 8 undefeated players was 3-0-1 W/L/D with Thorns, and one Grymwatch player was 2-0-2 W/L/D.


The Cut To Top 16:


Here are the final 16 after the day 1 cut:

However, the Ironskull's Boyz player was not able to attend the second day, so the player in 17th, a Thundrick's Profiteers's player, was moved up to take their place. Thus the 16 moving into the next day are:

This top 16 is determined by points (3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for losses), then fewest game losses, and finally glory differential.


Cursebreakers, Thundricks, and Grymwatch represent most of the high performers, a pair of Thorns players compete for the best ghost player, and a lonely Mollog and Eyes of the Nine player do what they can to represent their warbands in the next four rounds of the second day.


You can read about day two here.


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